Researchers have known for decades that founders expect to succeed far more often than they do. Leopoldo Alejandro Betancourt López treats that optimism as a working tool.
“I’m very optimistic, always, and I think that’s one of the key to success,” he said when asked about the principles behind his business decisions. “If you’re pessimistic, it’s going to rain. If you’re optimistic, you’re going to see the sun.”
What the 1988 Survey Found
Arnold Cooper and Carolyn Woo of Purdue University and William Dunkelberg of Temple University surveyed 2,994 people who had become business owners in 1984 and 1985. Their paper, published in the Journal of Business Venturing in 1988, found that 95% rated their own odds of success at five out of 10 or better and 81% at seven out of 10 or better. A third called their chances 10 out of 10.
Only 39% gave businesses like theirs odds of seven out of 10 or better. On average the owners rated their own chances at 8.1 and their peers’ at 5.9, and 68% said their own odds beat those of others in the same line of work. Just 5% thought they were worse off. The authors called the owners’ view of their peers’ chances “significantly lower, but still moderately favorable.”
Alejandro Betancourt López’s Optimism With a Ledger
He pairs the sunny outlook with a long memory for losses. “I’m always hungry for more,” Alejandro Betancourt López said of how he gets back to work after a deal goes badly.
Optimism has a limit in his telling. “Not dream on fantasy land, but optimistic,” he said in a 2023 interview. A founder still needs “the two feet on the ground,” he added.
An entrepreneur who believes the odds are 10 out of 10 will start more ventures than the odds justify. One who expects rain may never start at all. His approach keeps the confidence and adds a running count of results across a portfolio, so a single bad year does not decide the outcome.
He counts the average, not the single deal. Alejandro Betancourt has compared his record to a hitter who swings for the fences and accepts the strikeouts that come with it, and his résumé shows the spread of positions behind that average, from eyewear and ride-hailing licenses to padel software and West African banking.
The list keeps growing. Alejandro Betancourt López has kept adding positions through his family office, most recently in artificial intelligence.